bit.ly
The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not seem to believe so. At least in two cases.
bet9ja.com
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars since Monday afternoon.
bet9ja.com
“All the money is being available in on Texas,” Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. “We need Arizona State to cover +13.5.”

The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns’ opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most like from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked to several bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a “really respected gamer.”

Even though highly regarded money has can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are overdoing Texas.

“We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book,” Magee included.

While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn’t the only game in town. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually sneaked up a little to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at a lot of sportsbooks. The overall dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.

“We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. “I wouldn’t be amazed if this line creeps up a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State cash.”

Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before respected cash pushed it to the existing line of -2.5. A slightly greater majority of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.

“We did take some reputable money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it’s stayed,” Gable said. “It’s decent two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest move of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, told The Athletic that “Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55.”

He did note, though, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s second round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line flip? Basically, the wagering action.
bet9ja.com
Although Georgia’s starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been “one-way traffic on Georgia,” according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.